If you’re a gambling man or woman you’re probably already looking for some future bets for 2020. Look no further, you should take Sam Ehlinger to win the Heisman, and you should do it right now.
The Ehlinger Trends
This pick is all about trends. Believe it or not I wasn’t wasn’t hot on Ehlinger until recently. In fact, just a couple weeks ago I didn’t even think he would be the best QB in the Big 12 (I still think Spencer Rattler and Oklahoma will win the Big 12 but that’s a discussion we will have later..). However, once I put my bias aside and noticed a few trends, I think placing a Heisman bet on Sam Ehlinger ASAP makes sense.
So, Ehlinger improved in just about every stat from 2018 to 2019, and I see it happening again in 2020. In 2019 he threw for 3,663 yards, 32 TDs, and averaged 65.2 completion percentage. This will improve in 2020 because 1) Texas is returning a good chunk of their offense, and 2) they’re getting the a new OC. Their new OC, Mike Yurcich is fresh from Ohio State who averaged 529.9 yards of offense and 46.9 points per game last season. This only the only trend that intrigues me.
According to SportsBettingDime.com’s Heisman Tracker, Ehlinger’s odds have been shortened 4 times since their initial release. Sam Ehlinger (+1000), now sits alongside Justin Fields (+325), Trevor Lawrence(+350, Spencer Rattler (+875), and D’eriq King (+950). Keep in mind those odds are calculated by SBD by “averaging out the futures odds available at major online sportsbooks”, so there will be some variability between books.
I only see these trends continuing. Ehlinger will put up greater numbers than last year and his odds will continue to be shortened. That’s why now is the best time to hop on Ehlinger. At +1000 or +1200 depending on the book, he’s worth the bet. If you wait until his odds get shortened even more this pick loses value rapidly. Ehlinger is not a “lock” for the Heisman, but at his current value and the way things are trending this bet makes sense. If his odds continue to shorten, then you’re better off going with Lawrence or Field.